How Common Are Late-Season Upsets in the NFL?
One of the great things about watching football is that nothing is ever certain. Teams on a hot streak can stumble, underdogs can come good and take a big win, and every game has the element of surprise and chance associated with it. This makes for great viewing, obviously, but how common are upsets later in the NFL season?
Just like most other sporting leagues, the NFL has such a draw for so many people who watch because no match has a guaranteed outcome. It doesn’t matter how much of a hot streak a team might be on; they can still have a bad day and stumble. It doesn’t matter how poorly a side has been playing; they can tread a field as though driven by glorious purpose and overcome seemingly insurmountable odds to bring home a win. It isn’t just the casual watcher that can be surprised, either; even experts who make NFL picks with unerring accuracy can be blindsided by factors that no one could predict.
But ultimately, these surprises are a good thing! The games would be boring if the results were always easily predictable. But how common exactly are upsets later in the season, and what are some factors that can lead to these surprising results? Funnily enough, upsets, surprising as they remain, are more common than you might think. Let’s take a closer look.
What Exactly is a Late-Season Upset?
Just so we’re all on the same page, what do we mean when we’re talking about a late-season upset? We think an upset occurs when a team that is low on the ladder or a team that has had poor recent form overcomes a team right at the top of the ladder. Typically, we would only call it an upset if there is some significance in the perceived skill gap between them. In terms of late-season, anywhere between weeks 14 and 18 would fit the bill.
While not always the case, these upsets can often have an effect that reaches far beyond just the surprise of defeat for a favorite. Apart from dramatically altering NFL football odds for teams heading into the playoffs with a defeat on their conscience, they can sometimes affect the possibility of a team having a shot at the Super Bowl.
Interestingly, upsets like this are not really that rare. Just about every season, there are a number of teams that manage to overwhelm a much bigger opponent and take home a surprising win. While not all of them are full upsets that cause a big effect, throughout the league, the unpredictability of games like this is what many fans love about the NFL.
Why Are Upsets More Common in the Late Season?
You might be wondering why we are so focused on upsets in the late season, and there are some good reasons for that. To start with, even though some teams enter a season with good odds and strong composition, enough typically changes between seasons that while there are clear favorites, there isn’t a reliable balance of power established yet. Other than that, there are a number of things that increase the chances of upsets happening later in the season, such as:
The Injury List
A simple reality of the game we love is: It’s tough on the body. Even though most NFL players are at the peak of their fitness, the rigors of the game just take their toll as the season goes on. This means that what might be a carefully planned out and meticulously positioned roster in the early season can become a patchwork of ‘make-do’ in the late season. To put it more simply, many teams are just not at full strength when the end of the season comes around.
Motivation Can Ebb
Just like their physicality, the emotional and psychological readiness of players can ebb and wane throughout a season. While they might fight hard for every foot in the early season, the same player might not take it as seriously later on if playoff spots are already secured. This can affect the coaching and management of a team as well, seeing them place more valuable players in reserve or putting them out to rest before what they view as the real challenges to come.
Conversely, teams that have seemingly no or very little chance at making it much further might throw everything they have at their last few games, if for no other reason than to enjoy the fight of it. For younger players and players hoping to make contract changes, later in the season might be the perfect place to showcase the full range of their abilities, regardless of their team’s chances.
Feeling the Pressure
Once again, the players are only human. Sometimes, humans fold under pressure. In the late season, when a team has a narrow window to secure a spot in the playoffs, players are going to be feeling that pressure on every play. Just the same way as it does for anyone else, feeling pressure like that can cause misplays and errors very easily. Again, on the other side of the coin, teams that can’t make a playoff spot will have players who feel little to no pressure, allowing them to achieve flow and play much more naturally and aggressively.
Weather Can Play a Factor
As the later rounds of the season take place throughout winter, there are plenty of chances for storms, cold rains and even snow to affect the matches. While modern teams often train in all sorts of adverse conditions, facing an opponent on the field under those conditions can be a game-changer.
We often see games played in extreme weather turn into much scrappier and chaotic contests, with many of the more skilful expressions of play heavily limited.
Final Thoughts
Even if late-season upsets are more common than we might perceive, that doesn’t make them any less exciting. Underdogs unexpectedly taking out a big opponent is a great part of what makes the NFL so exciting and watchable, year after year.
So, don’t take any wins for granted, and watch every match with the knowledge that no team is guaranteed a win.